International economy
Seyed Hasan Malekhosseini; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Monireh Rafat; Mahdi Yazdani
Abstract
Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium value and exploring the factors affecting its changes is crucial for both economic policymakers and economic agents. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate misalignment, the exchange rate regime, has received less attention ...
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Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium value and exploring the factors affecting its changes is crucial for both economic policymakers and economic agents. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate misalignment, the exchange rate regime, has received less attention in experimental studies. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to find out the answer to the question of how real exchange rate misalignment is affected by different exchange rate regimes. In other words, in which of the exchange rate regimes is the exchange rate misalignment less and in which one it is higher? To answer the question, the propensity score matching approach has been used. For this purpose, we have used data from 116 developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in 2019. Other factors such as real exchange rate misalignment in the previous period, inflation, the quality of institutions and financial development have been considered as match variables to net the effect of the exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignment and to separate the effects of other variables. The results showed that the real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level has responded significantly to the type of exchange rate regime adopted by the countries, so that the floating exchange rate regime increases the real exchange rate misalignment in the selected developing countries wherever implemented. It can be argued that factors such as high exchange rate fluctuations, a more drastic adjustment in the price level, and speculative bubbles or contagion effects in the floating exchange rate regime have led to an increase in these misalignments.
currency
Narges Nasiri; Seyed Komail Tayebi
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of ...
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The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of globalization, which has significant benefits to many countries worldwide. However, due to negative impacts on exchange rates as well as currency crises, financial liberalizations followed by some Latin American and Southeast Asian countries raised concerns in the last decade of the twentieth century. Hence the question: can capital control play a role in preventing or exacerbating the currency crisis? This study evaluates the relationship between capital control index and currency crisis and also examines the role of this variable as a warning indicator. Since the main application of the early warning systems is crisis forecasting, the purpose is to model the early warning indicators of currency crisis using Bayesian averaging method. To achieve this, 70 variables were examined for 60 countries during the period 1975-2019, both in floating and non-floating exchange rate systems. The results showed that capital control has a significant effect on reducing the occurrence of currency crisis, also different capital control indicators do not have the same warning power. In addition, different currency systems are effective in changing the power and rank of warning variables, especially for the use of capital control index.
International economy
Leila Allahdadian; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Gholamhosein Kiani
Abstract
According to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theory, besides labor force and capital other production factors such as energy and indicators of environment quality may affect exporting potentials of goods and services in an economy. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to explore the effects of ...
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According to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theory, besides labor force and capital other production factors such as energy and indicators of environment quality may affect exporting potentials of goods and services in an economy. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to explore the effects of the main determinants, particularly carbon dioxide emission intensity, which is a proxy for environment quality, on the net exports of the selected manufacturing products (auto parts and petrochemical products) between Iran and its major trading partners. Basically, an econometric model for Iran’s net exports is applied to these trading products specifying two panel regression equations using the data of 21 Iran’s partners over 2000-2019. Empirical results have been obtained by estimating two regression equations of auto parts and petrochemical products net exports using panel GLS method. Based on the empirical results, there is a significant and negative effect of the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner on net exports of auto parts, which implies a decrease in the trade deficit of these products. In contrast, the results show that the environmental quality significantly and negatively affects the net exports of the petrochemical products implying a rise in the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner, which decreases Iran’s net exports of the petrochemical products.
Sepideh Ohadi Esfahani; SeyedKomail Tayebi Tayebi; Iraj Kazemi
Abstract
In recent years, most studies in the field of technology and trade have focused on the critical importance of technological change in explaining international trade patterns. Technological innovation is not taking place in all countries and it does not spread to all countries at the same time, therefore ...
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In recent years, most studies in the field of technology and trade have focused on the critical importance of technological change in explaining international trade patterns. Technological innovation is not taking place in all countries and it does not spread to all countries at the same time, therefore technological distance would exist among countries.This paper has explained the effect of technological distance on Iran’s trade relations, specifying a semi-parametric gravity model over 1995-2015. As expected, the estimation results of semi-parametric gravity model show that the effect of GDP on bilateral trade relations between Iran and each of the selected trading partners is positive and significant. The population of the exporter has negative impact while the importer’s population has positive effect on bilateral trade. Our empirical results indicate that the relationship between technological distance and bilateral trade is nonparametric, implying a general effect of technology on Iran’s bilateral trade relations. More clearly, in some ranges of the technological distance a negative effect appears on trade relations, while in other fractions of the relevant distance, the impact is positive, leading to an increase in bilateral trade relations between Iran and its trading partners.
Abdorasoul Sadeghi; Seyed Komail Tayebi
Abstract
Due to the historical importance of inflation in the Iranian economy and its serious effects on the society, the present study has explored the impacts of international sanctions and other effective factors on the inflation rate in Iran during 1981-2014. To this end, this paper has specified an econometric ...
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Due to the historical importance of inflation in the Iranian economy and its serious effects on the society, the present study has explored the impacts of international sanctions and other effective factors on the inflation rate in Iran during 1981-2014. To this end, this paper has specified an econometric model of inflation rate, which has been estimated by the ARDL method using relevant time series data including the above period. The empirical results obtained indicate that the international sanctions have had direct and significant effects on the inflation rate through changes in exchange rate and budget deficit. Additionally, exchange rate, money liquidity and deposit interest rate have had positive and significant effects on the inflation rate, while oil revenues and tax earnings have influenced indirectly and significantly Iran’s inflation rate over the period.
